Linux vs. Windows Vista vs. Leopard | Rob Enderle

[Geoffrey Moore, author of "Crossing the Chasm,"] clearly felt that [Microsoft] was vulnerable -- but not to Linux, considering what this system's desktop path seems to be. Moore pointed out that things move slowly and that a good place to look for ideas for future products is among kids and young people -- and what they are currently using.

.....Recall that Microsoft not only didn't initially target IBM as a competitor but partnered with it in order to gain faster entry into the market. In fact IBM still maintains one of the largest Microsoft services organizations in the world. While it may be hard to remember now, Microsoft at one time focused on the opportunity and the customer -- not Netscape, or Google, or internal politics. As a result, Microsoft benefited when IBM's geriatric behavior caught up with it.

.....I have to wonder if it is even possible for Linux proponents to stop the infighting long enough to even think about the future, let alone get there first.

.....Leopard [from Apple] may look a lot like what Vista was promised to be and, based on how Apple developed the iPod, it may also be capable of building a media center offering that works......

Despite all this, if this Leopard vs. Vista scenario plays out this will place the most competitive Mac OS in history -- on aggressively designed Intel based hardware -- against what may be the most competitively exposed Microsoft desktop OS since Windows Millennium Edition in the market, in the fourth quarter of 2007.

If Apple can't at least double its small share during this unique event it should abandon the Mac OS as a dead end, because this kind of opportunity will never come again.....

2008 will be a critical year for Apple, Microsoft, and the Linux contingent. If Apple can't significantly expand its presence by then in the PC market it is likely going to be finished with this segment. Its likely path in that case will be to focus more aggressively on the consumer electronics market it currently dominates.

If the Linux set can't get over its internal problems it will be bypassed, likely by something else that better blends proprietary and open source components into solutions that more accurately meet the emerging needs for appliance-like products real people want to buy. If Microsoft can't find a way to become agile and customer focused again it will clearly be on the long slow path that IBM blazed -- and that Sun is already reaching the end of.

http://www.technewsworld.com/story/50236.html