Prof. Eric Brewer of Inktomi talked about the re-emergence of the time-sharing idea in the form of web service in his recent interview with FT. Tell me if I am being dumb, but is he saying what I am hearing or is the journalist confused with what he was actually saying?
I don't get this. The story first talk about grid computing or "computer utility" and then all of sudden ASP and finally web services. Either journalist or Prof. Brewer (or both) seem to think they are the same thing. And they are not the same thing. After all the confusions, Prof. Brewer seems talking about how web services will change the world.
I still think I kind of understand his points - specialisation in computing will remove a lot of inefficiency in the current market. ASPs will provide specialised services to companies, so that they don't have to run their own, often incapable and inefficient, IT house. Key driver for this will be standardisation, or commoditisation, within computing, which will let companies pick and mix various software components from various ASPs (remind me of IBM...). SMEs will love the service and take it up fast. Big companies will be slower but even they will gradually get hooked up with the model. The world will change.
How nice. And how outdated. Honestly, I believe in the ultimate promise of ASPs. But that will take a long time - not because of technology (we have that already or at least in a near future), but because of the social factors. Either Prof. Brewer or the journalist (or both) don't see two things.
First, what is the difference between utility industry and computing industry? Does the electricity have a meaning? No. Does a set of bytes have a meaning? Yes, very likely. I have my computing power provided by, say, someone in India (I'll be lucky if I know where it comes from!). Do I have the ultimate control on how the data is handled? Erm......no. More importantly, perhaps, what will happen if there's powercut? Or do I even know if there will be a powercut? What happens if the power supplier suddenly disappears in the middle of an important transaction and I can't get my data back - oh my god! I don't have the backup! Do you see the problem here? All these questions point to one thing - regulation, at least in the early and mid stage of the development. And that will take a long time.
Second, why SMEs will take the service? How much cost will be actually saved by outsourcing all the IT functions? So many times have there been technologists claiming what they have will reduce costs of running the firm, but only to see it increased by adopting the new thing. The B2B exchange is one thing. The ASP boom in 2000 is another. The mistake is that the technologists failed to factor in other costs that would occur when using the service. In additions to the costs associated with the above things I mentioned, how about training? What if its counterparts at bigger companies sticks to the old thing, thereby rendering the new thing at my company less than useful? What if it actually increase the total cost of doing the same thing???
Grid, ASP, web services... all good. But we technologists should look at the problem not only from technological point of view, but also from other social points of view. That will dramatically reduce the amount of shareholder money wasted, among its many positive effects.
